Thoughts before I go.
Goodness. 2025 has been a lot.
I need a favour.
Our podcast has been nominated for the People’s Choice at the Political Podcast awards.
We’re up against all the big names - BBC, Sky News, The Rest is Politics, whatever Ed Balls and George Osborne’s one is called…
The odds are stacked against us.
So this is where you come up. The button below takes you to the vote. Pop yourself over, tick our box, job done. It’ll take 30 seconds and it could help us do something remarkable.
Get it done now, forward it to a friend. Vote early, vote often.
Thank you xxx
Dear lovely people,
It’s 19th December. This Christmas thing is pretty real.
The radio is all in on Christmas songs. The tills are ringing in shops (I know tills don’t ring anymore, but you get the point). The lights twinkle brightly in the dark, dark evenings.
Parliament has shut down for Christmas. MPs are back in their constituencies, attending endless festive parties. I presume that the very sight of a vol au vent and a glass of cava makes them shudder for the rest of the year.
Government is still up and running, of course. The departments are probably going a little slow, but the country is still being run.
Spare a thought for the PM, hosting hundreds of drinks receptions at Number 10. Fear not, Sir Keir, it’s unlikely you’ll have to do it again next year.
The opposition parties haven’t let up too much. This morning I have received press releases from the SNP, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. All equally outraged.
Next Friday will be Boxing Day. You don’t need an email from me on Boxing Day.
As such, this is my final email of 2025.
One event that won’t make it to the summary is what happened in Sicily on 26th July.
In the shade of a beautiful old building, beside the deep blue sea, I married The Wonderful Katie. It was pretty special.
And so, I raise a glass to 2025. It’s been emotional.
Peace and love,
Tatton x
And all I've done for want of wit
To memory now I can't recall
So fill to me the parting glass
Good night and joy be to you allTraditional, 1600s
(Also covered by Boygenius after the death of Sinéad O’Connor.)
All our yesterdays have lighted fools
It’s hard to document a year. This ragged collection of days, held together under the loose title of 2025. And yet… that’s the job I have before me. The temptation is to go chronologically, but I shall forego the pleasures of structure in order to examine topics more fully.
The year politics changed.
Opinion polls at the beginning of the year were pretty clear. Labour were out in front at 27% ish. Second were the Conservatives at 24% ish. These were low scores for the two biggest parties, but they were ahead.
Come May, both parties would lose approx two thirds of their councillors. The election was won by Reform by miles and miles, with the Liberal Democrats coming in at second place.
By the time July rolled around, Reform were polling at 31%, nearly ten places above Labour. The Conservatives languishing on 24 or so. The Lib Dems, of course, hanging out in their standard position.
Keep going in this inexorable journey and things change dramatically once again. The new Green Party leader - Zack Polanski - bought about a Green Surge. Right now they’re ahead of the Lib Dems and gaining on Labour.
Labour have performed so badly, in fact, that a small Conservative bounce has put them ahead in many polls.
Lovely reader, this is the year in which the UK has truly entered multi party politics. In England it’s a five way split. In Scotland and Wales, it’s a six way thing.
Of course, this could be a temporary move, not a permanent shift.
Nobody likes anyone. A quick look at approval ratings is pretty awful.
Approval ratings take all the percentage of people who feel positive about someone and minus all the percentage of those who say they feel negatively about them.
Starmer is on -50ish. Badenoch -26, Farage -20, Davey -8, Polanksi -6.
Pretty much all year, everyone has been negative. It’s a bin fire. No wonder people are looking for answers elsewhere.
Perhaps all it would take is for both the Conservatives and Labour to have effective and charismatic leaders who can speak to the Commons and to the public and the other parties drift away again.
There is already some evidence that the Reform wave is ebbing.
Flags
Over the summer, there was only one story in town. Flags.
Someone somewhere took down a St George’s Cross flag on a council building. It was due to planning or something equally bureaucratic, but it was enough of a spark to light a fire.
Against a backdrop of record numbers of people arriving in small boats across the chanel and a horrid assault in Epping, protests became louder and louder. More and more flags. More and more graffiti on mini roundabouts and zebra crossings.
There was some disagreement about what it all meant. There were claims of it just being about patriotism and comparisons to the USA where the Stars and Stripes are ubiquitous. Farage said it was a wonderful two fingers up at the government, which is a specific message that goes way beyond the patriotism line.
There were many, many interviews in the paper of people who felt intimidate by the flags. People who thought that they were an explicit declaration of hostility towards them.
The government allowed this story to run and run all summer long.
I live next to Faversham where there continue to be running battles at three in the morning between people who put flags up and those who take them down.
Locally, many flags were replaced with Remembrance versions. Pictures of our glorious dead. As far as I can tell, they haven’t been removed, although they could have come down and then put back up. They certainly still fly today.
The feeling of needing to stay at home for one’s own safety isn’t limited to those people who feel threatened by the flags. There are also many, many stories of people not letting their daughters out, or not going out themselves because of the risk posed by people who arrived here on small boats.
We’re talking about so many people in our communities not feeling safe to leave the house. Towns fighting for their identity. Politicians trying to make sense of it all.
Why? Because the country is struggling under a burden of borken services, a lack of housing, creaking councils and an overwhelming sense of hopelessness.
Of course I blame the pandemic. Regular readers will know that I blame the pandemic for almost everything.
Growth
The government’s number one mission is growth.
Why? Because growth gives you everything you need. More jobs, more money in people’s pockets, less demand for services, more tax revenues to pay for the services that are still needed.
Honestly, decent growth is a really, really great thing.
Alas, it’s also really, really difficult to achieve.
In 2017, we were growing about 0.8-1% a quarter. The most recent figure, for Q3 this year, was 0.1%.
We’re not growing. We’re terrible at being productive. Even the French with their vin and Boursin are better at getting stuff done. We can’t even build a railway line.
Starmer says he’s pulling all the levers he’s got. Reeves gave a tax ad spend budget (although the spend starts now and the tax comes later). Is that a grand Keynesian plan, or just someone who wants their MPs to let her eat her lunch with them? Nobody knows.
We’ve got no growth. Unemployment has grown every month since the 2024 General Election. One in twenty young people looking for jobs can’t find one.
Inflation is coming down, but at 3.2% it’s way over the 2% target. Perhaps we’d be forgiven for thinking 3.2% is OK because of what we’ve had recently. The reality is different.
Stubborn inflation, rising unemployment, rising benefits bill, a lack of confidence… this is not the path to growth. Perhaps 2026 will be rosier.
Abroad
No wonder that Keir Starmer is so keen on running around the world. Sure, it’s suspiciously often at PMQs time, but we do need some help.
We saw our Prime Minister in the USA, not quite condemning any of Trump’s actions. We’ve seen him in India, not mentioning the human rights abuses that seem to keep Narendra Modi in power.
He popped over to COP in Brazil, too. He didn’t seem to have much to say about it when he returned. Net Zero is a hard thing to sell right now, so he doesn’t push it much.
Trade and investment is an excellent path to growth. That’s a big part of his plan.
For it to work, he mustn’t upset the apple cart. He’s off to praise President Xi in China next year.
That’s probably enough
I haven’t got into assisted dying, abortion decriminalisation, the Grenfell report, the Covid report, neonatal care leave, Your Party, disposable vapes, pet passports, digital ID, Waspi women… none of it.
I’m aware, however, that you’ve got to pretend to be doing a bit of work before you head to your Christmas party. I shall leave you here.
Back in a couple of weeks with a look ahead at 2026.
Turkey. Stilton. Joy.
I have nothing to add, really.
Have a very, very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
I’ll see you back here on 2nd January.
Be well x