OK what shall we do?
Change, but this time we mean it.
Dear lovely people,
Between 2020 and 2024, not one woman aged 20-24 died of cervical cancer. None. That hasn’t happened since we first started recording these things.
The official study said that approximately 199.5 lives have been saved. Approx 199.5. Not approx 200. Faaar too approx for them. That’s scientists for you, I guess.
The risk of mortality from cervical cancer is now almost zero for those under 30.
The HPV vaccine was introduced in schools in 2008. The vast majority have it in Year 8 (with later top ups). Since 2019, boys have also started having the vaccine.
Lovely people… science is coming. Woop.
Peace and love,
Tatton x
I wanna be the leader
I wanna be the leader
Can I be the leader?
Can I? I can?
Promise? Promise?
Yippee I'm the leader
I'm the leader
OK what shall we do?Roger McGough
The whirligig of time
Before we get started on Labour leadership shenanigans, let’s have a tiny bit of context.
In April and May, we borrowed £9bn more than we did in April and May last year. Money is tight and finding savings is tough. The provisional armed forces settlement coming is so bad we’ve already lost two ministers over it. Labour MPs don’t want to vote for cuts.
These things will remain true for the rest of the year, regardless of which heavy head is wearing the crown.
In the early hours of this morning, the results of the Makerfield by-election were announced. Andy Burnham won by miles and miles and miles. He got more than 50% of all votes cast. Add Restore Britain’s vote to Reform’s vote and they’re not even close to challenging the King of the North.
Of course, it helps that the Reform candidate was truly, spectacularly awful.
Vote share from the Greens and the Lib Dems was just over 1%. In 2024, those parties shared 10. Burnham added 10% to the Labour result last time out.
There is an (admittedly dubious) argument that says if Greens and Lib Dems voted for their fave parties, and Restore Britain fans had gone with Reform, it would have been a 42% to 46% win.
What the BBC are calling a ‘resounding’ win came on the back of the worst possible Reform candidate (really, how did they do that? The wrongest of wrong’uns.) and tactical voting from Lib Dems and Greens.
Anyway, he’s there. He’ll be sworn in on Monday. A hard rain’s going to fall.
What happens next largely depends on our Prime Minister.
Should he wish to get this whole deal wrapped up next week, he could set a date to go - maybe the start of summer recess? - and allow Senor Burnham to saunter into Number 10 on a beautiful July afternoon.
Ah!! Breaking News!
As I write, Starmer himself has ruled that out. He says he ‘will stand’ in a contest. He’s ‘not going to walk away’. I’m leaving in the above paragraph because history will record that it was a really easy way out for him (and because I enjoyed calling the challenger ‘Senor Burnham’).
A contest it will be…
The rules are as follows: to challenge the sitting Labour leader, you need the backing of 20% of the party’s MPs. So that’s 81 (including yourself - you can choose to support someone else if you’ve already reached the 81). There could, in theory, be five different challenger candidates.
There are also complicated rules that mean you have to get support from constituencies and unions and things, too - but that shouldn’t be too arduous for any serious candidate.
The sitting leader, Starmer, doesn’t need anyone’s support and is automatically in the mix.
Unlike the Conservative Party, who you may remember whittled their candidates down to two, all the wannabe Prime Ministers are then on the ballot that goes out to the vote. This being Labour, it’s much more complicated than just Labour members. Various trade unions, co-operative and socialist societies also get votes.
Let’s pretend, then, that we have loads of MPs backing Mr B. The Streeting camp say that they’ve got the numbers to be involved. Al Carns (a decorated former Marine who resigned as Armed Forces Minister last week) wants to give it a go, for sure. Angela Rayner has been pretty quiet recently, but she’d love a bit of Number 10 action.
That would be four challengers and the PM off to win the votes of the country.
One question is timing - convention might suggest this is all wrapped up by the Party Conference on 27th September, but that is a tight turnaround. There is also the Mayor of Manchester by-election, probably on 30th July. A party in leadership turmoil might struggle to prevent a Reform win there.
The good news for our glorious leader is that the last time the Labour family was asked to vote, they voted overwhelmingly for him. There was no need for a second round count - he got 56.2% of all votes. The bad news for him is that his campaign focused on 10 pledges - almost all of which he has now broken to some extent.
I can’t see how he could possibly, possibly win that vote. He will say that he was elected in 2024 and should be allowed to finish the job. He will say that the Conservatives destroyed themselves by changing leaders. He will conveniently forget that when they swapped from Theresa May to Boris Johnson, they went on to win an early General Election by miles and miles. None of it will make a difference. If it goes to the members, he loses.
Are the members, though, as aligned to Burnham as the MPs? Maybe. Maybe not. David Miliband was the preferred candidate for MPs in 2010, with 81 MPs, while his brother Ed only had 63. Ed won. Burnham has stood twice, receiving 9% in that 2010 contest and 19% when he lost to Jeremy Corbyn in 2015.
It’s all a little unpredictable and a little personality driven. Very few people could pick a Burnham policy from a list, let alone the others. Perhaps Al Carns offers some ideological difference to the others, but the more centrist / right wing candidates haven’t smashed it in recent contests.
However this plays out, there are troubled waters to bridge. We need a leader to emerge, somehow unscathed by the inevitable mud-slinging. This isn’t about party - this is the Prime Minister. The events of the next few days / weeks / months will have long term, serious repercussions. Let’s hope we’re not going to be sunk by the ambition of a few men in Westminster.
Of course, this will all be dominated by leadership chat, but we should take a look at the plan nonetheless.
Monday - The Armed Forces Bill wraps up it’s Commons journey. Please note - this is not the armed forces settlement plan that the government say they’re going to share any minute now.
Tuesday - The Conservatives choose the topic today.
Wednesday - PMQs.
Not much after that.
Thursday - A General Debate on ‘Windrush Day 2026’ and ‘the diagnosis and treatment of PANS and PANDAS’, which are paediatric medical conditions which hit suddenly and hit hard.
Last week, lots of people responded to this little bit at the end. I must admit, I always assumed that nobody ever got this far down the email and I pretty much had a free hit to say whatever nonsense I wanted.
Now I know better, I resolve to make these final words eloquent, inspiring and definitely not just me ranting about cricket.
Be well x